http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html?entrynum=664
Good day!
Well, our first system of the not yet started 2010 Hurricane Season. Earlier this morning, the area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas was designated INVEST 90L.
At approximately 8:00 a.m. this morning, the very broad, low level circulation center was estimated to be near 27.5N;72.3W. The area has been quasi-stationary for most of the morning, however, current steering layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL suggest, along with Global Computer models, a motion to the NNE for a short period may occur, with the system turning back toward the U.S. East Coast within the next 60-72 hours.
Maximum sustained winds were estimated near 30 mph, and the Minimum Central Pressure was estimated to be 1013mb/29.91 in.
The current run of the CIMSS wind shear product indicates this disturbance to be under 40 kts of westerly wind shear, which at the moment, is shearing convective cloud tops to the east. As this system progresses, and then retrogrades back toward the SEUS, the upper level environment, just before landfall, may improve with relaxing upper level winds. Based on shear products, and SST's in the area...this system, should it develop any further, could become subtropical at best. Were this to occur, we would have our first named system of the year...Alex.
Based on wind speed approximations from the GFS WAVEWATCH model, and the ECMWF, sustained wind with this system could reach 40-45 mph. However, with this type of system, these winds would be a fairly good distance from the center. Seasa close to the NC/VA coast may reach 7-9ft. With an easterly fetch/onshore flow, some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding remians a very good possibility.
Based on steering analysis and some of the global models, I have to go with a landfall around the NC OBX area, until we see if in fact, the system gets established, and computer models have had a chance at further runs. Preliminary track data is not accurate, as the models have nothing to work with upon initialization. |