90E due to be a TD anytime
Posted by JAC on 5/28/2010, 3:44 pm
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=EP902010&starting_image=2010EP90_4KMSRBDC_201005251845.jpg


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ONSHORE WINDS TO THE EAST OF
THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM EL
SALVADOR WESTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST TO NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 12.9N 94.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM. A 270759Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 270404Z ASCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.





















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90E due to be a TD anytime - JAC, 5/28/2010, 3:44 pm
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