Cat 3 and still intensifying
Posted by JAC on 6/2/2010, 6:34 am







TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED 11 NM EYE, PROVIDING
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC
PHET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN TO
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 36. TC PHET IS FORECAST TO THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE IN SPEED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES AND CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 96. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE WESTERLIES,
HOWEVER, THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TURN. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS WITH THE TIMING OF
THE TURN. THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, WBAR) INDICATES A SHARP
RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (NOGAPS,
GFS, GFDN) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN, THEN
RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. THE MODELS HAVE HAD
DIFFICULTY DEPICTING THE RIDGE AXIS DUE TO THE SPARSE DATA REGION
AND HAVE INCREASED IN MODEL SPREAD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO OMAN THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TC 03A TO OMAN AROUND
TAU 36, THE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU
48. ALSO, AFTER INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE, THEREFORE TC PHET SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 96. TC 03A WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
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North Indian Ocean, TC03A, Karachi Pakistan Under-the-Gun - JAC, 6/1/2010, 9:02 am
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