| TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 301 PM AST FRI JUN 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE APPROACHING TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WAVE...COULD SEE A TYPICAL NOCTURNAL FLARE UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE USVI...SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AND FOR FLASH FLOODING TO BECOME POSSIBLE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THIS WAVE CROSSES THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AS WELL AS INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH THE QPF...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. |