93L System Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 6/22/2010, 12:24 am
The disturbance has maintained a decent structure this evening, but lacks a well defined surface /mid level circulation. This is a very important piece to the formation process. As with all tropical systems without a 925mb-850mb vorticity max, it's very difficult to fire large scale convective bursts. This will increase inflow and core heating and continue the cyclones veritical structure.
A thorough analysis of the system and surrounding atmosphric environment reveals a rather complex flow pattern. As deep layer mid-upper level easterlies are blowing across the eastern carib. In addition, the TUTT remains in place across the northern carib with yet another shear axis blowing westerly winds across the western/central carib. Lastly, a large upper high is centered a few hundred miles SE of the disturbance and not over the system, this is producing some SSW shear across the western quad of the disturbance with some outflow over the northern and eastern quad (Lacks outflow).
In conclusion, 93L will struggle the next few days as the above factors and possible interaction with the greater antilles will hold formation in check. As the sub-tropical ridge has a SE to NW mid level flow across the eastern carib which should force 93L towards a temporary NW motion before re-building and forcing a more WNW motion the next few days.
Note: would not be surprised if this remains a strong wave and nothing more. |
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93L System Analysis - Jake, 6/22/2010, 12:24 am Post A Reply
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