Overview of Current TC Forecast Guidance Available to NWS - Richard Pasch
Posted by
CypressTX on 6/22/2010, 8:01 am
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/pasch/
This is a great Power Point presentation from April of this year by NHC's Pasch. He details not only what they use but their strengths/weaknesses - very good to help understand them a bit better. He doesn't mention NOGAPS or Canadian, except to say they have not been used much by NHC.
He has this to say in his concluding remarks (slide #40)
-Operational TC track forecasting has advanced substantially over the past couple of decades, mainly due to advances in dynamical guidance
-Generally, a multi-model consensus provides more skillful guidance for track prediction than an individual model ensemble, although the latter may become more useful at 6 & 7 days
-Operational TC intensity forecasting has shown little improvement and NHC's dynamical models for forecasting intensity change have not advanced much over the past several years
-Global models have some skill in predicting TC genesis and may provide the basis for extending operational genesis forecasts from 2 to 5 days
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Overview of Current TC Forecast Guidance Available to NWS - Richard Pasch - CypressTX, 6/22/2010, 8:01 am
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