Re: Heavy T-Storms firing now at heart of 93L---Greater organization more likely I think
Posted by JAC on 6/22/2010, 8:33 am

Jack:

Like you said, this has a superb anti-cyclone directly over the LLC.

However, I am not too sure if convection currently is firing real close to the LLC.

Dvorak shows it is more to the NE of the LLC.

I think it has struggled last night since the air around it is weakly unstable.

I am only seeing LI's from 1 to -2 around it.

Dirunal cooling of the upper troposphere didn't seem to have taken place overnight.

If it did, LI's would be around -5 to -7.

Soundings show air is more unstable to the west.

It may flare later today as it moves west.

One good hot-tower is all it needs to kick it off.

My finger is on the refresh button for GOES rain-rate imagry - looking for the big white blob.










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Heavy T-Storms firing now at heart of 93L---Greater organization more likely I think - jack ruby, 6/22/2010, 8:12 am
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