HPC Forecast Discussion
Posted by
DTB_2009 on 6/23/2010, 5:06 pm
MEANWHILE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEFINE AN INCREASINGLY WIDE ENVELOPE WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE DEEPEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE GULF AND THE 00Z/12Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST WITH ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. USING CLIMATOLOGY AND THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A GUIDE...THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IF A TROPICAL LOW/CYCLONE FORMED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 5-6 DAYS THAT IT WOULD RECURVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST...PARTICULARLY IF THE MORE WESTERLY/DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH VERIFY. FOR NOW...THIS POSSIBILITY IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO SINCE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE GETTING LESS BULLISH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT BY THE DAY...AND IT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ORGANIZATION. THE 16Z TPC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK WAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE BETTER-AGREED UPON RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER AT 500 HPA ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MOVES THE LOW CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER CAMP OF ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html |
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