| http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270012.shtml? (they listed the NHC's website wrong inside the discussion ) 000 AXNT20 KNHC 270012 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 810 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BELIZE COAST NEAR 17.4N 88.1W WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB OR 21.4 INCHES OF MERCURY. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 77W...CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N...AND THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CONSIDERABLE HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AFFECTING GREATLY THE COUNTRIES OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...BELIZE ...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THESE COUNTRIES...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS IMMINENT ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV >Note: this should be www.nhc.noaa.gov ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT...DUE TO STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 15N MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH VALUES OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SOME CONVECTION CLOSE TO...BUT NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FOUND N OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST AT NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 8N30W 6N40W 5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...ARE ENTERING THE S AND SE BASIN OF THE GULF S OF 24N E OF 93W...AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND WESTERN CUBA. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM ALEX...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF TAMPA...DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS CERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING STRONG CONVECTION FROM ALEX SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV >Note: this should be www.nhc.noaa.gov THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COAST OF BELIZE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 77W...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA. FURTHERMORE...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CONSIDERABLE HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AFFECTING GREATLY THE COUNTRIES OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THESE COUNTRIES...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING MAY BE IMMINENT ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. ELSEWHERE E OF 77W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N W OF 72W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF 15N. A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE SE BASIN ALONG 67W S OF 15N. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ALEX...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV >Note: this should be www.nhc.noaa.gov THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH THE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 26N60W TO 19N64W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND 23N65W AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AROUND A BROAD 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W...SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA |