Alex System Analysis
Posted by Jake on 6/27/2010, 10:08 am
The storm has maintained a well defined inner core through most of the night. However, the interaction with central america has begun to deteriorate the inner core.  There's no questioning the extremely favorable upper air dynamics around Alex. He should emerge into the BOC late this afternoon and begin to strengthen.

Once the system is over water steady strengthening should occur. As stated upper levels are favorable, but there's a few issues he must deal with, proximity to land, some dry air entrainment, weakened inner core and large radius.

Alex has been tracking more westward or 285-290 degrees during the last several hours, this due to a mid level ridge which extends westward into the western gulf. The ridge will erode as a mid latitude trough deepens across the eastern US. This trough has been advertised days ago and the question was (Will it be strong enough to pull the storm north). The is unually strong for late June, but Alex is too far south and has passed the base of the troughs southern axis.

Conclusion: Alex will strengthen and become an 80-90mph hurricane while moving in a general WNW heading or 285-300 degrees and make landfall in central mex.
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Alex System Analysis - Jake, 6/27/2010, 10:08 am
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