Folks at NHC Having to Make Extremely Tough Calls With Alex
Posted by
jack ruby on 6/28/2010, 12:20 pm
| Still a wide divergence in models, however most making landfall on Tex Coast. The NHC earning their money with this first storm of the season. Considering the model divergence, the steady shift north of model consensus over the last 36 hours or so, the large US pop centers along the mid to upper Tex Coast, and the potential for a large and dangerous strike, the NHC has had to make the tough calls about where to put the official track. The 72 hour window is crucial---and I don't believe we have yet reached that point, but by that time the public will expect a greater degree of track certainty. But models are simply having a tough time with this storm. Hopefully some kind of model consensus will be there at 72 hours, but in any case the tough call will have to be made. Then there is also the CHARLEY TYPE SCENARIO---when just a slight difference in angle of approach can make a hundred miles of so of difference in actual landfall. The NHC boys are earning their money now. |
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Folks at NHC Having to Make Extremely Tough Calls With Alex - jack ruby, 6/28/2010, 12:20 pm
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