Alex Moving NNW---expected turn in 6-12 hours
Posted by
jack ruby on 6/29/2010, 5:27 am
Almost all models say that a turn to the NW and WNW toward the upper Mexican Coast will occur at that time. From the latest advisory---the NHC explanation
THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. |
126
In this thread:
Alex Moving NNW---expected turn in 6-12 hours - jack ruby, 6/29/2010, 5:27 am Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.