QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION & Graphic
Posted by CypressTX on 6/30/2010, 7:46 am
| http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 548 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2010 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 30/1200 UTC THRU JUL 03/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... WEST/CENTRAL GULF REGION AND ALEX... VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE CNTRL AND WRN GULF COAST REGION WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE ALEX CIRCULATION. PW VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH A STEADY ONSHORE GULF FLOW. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN TX WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CIRC CENTER...WHERE POTENTIAL 5 INCH PLUS TOTALS ARE INDICATED...AS IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH PLUS RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE TX AND LA COAST AS ENHANCEMENT NOTED ON SATL IMAGERY WRAPS ONSHORE. SOME HVY PRECIP BANDS SHOULD ALSO SET UP THIS AFTN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND INTERIOR TX AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST ELY FLOW. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE ALEX. DAYS 2/3... ...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST... FORECAST TO HAVE REACHED A POINT WELL INLAND OVER NERN MEX BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BRING VRY HVY RAINS TO THE NRN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL OF MEX/SRN RIO GRANDE WATERSHED AS IT WINDS DOWN. HVY RAINS ARE A POSSIBILITY FURTHER TO THE E AS WELL ALONG THE GULF COAST AS SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REPLENISH THE COPIOUS MOISTURE PLUME POOLING ALONG A LINGERING BNDRY STRETCHED ALONG THE COAST....WITH PWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY A STRING OF MID LVL ENERGY...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND CONCENTRATED POCKETS OF VRY HVY AMTS ALONG AND S OF THE BNDRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TWO DAY TOTALS OF 4-8 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST...HOWEVER PINPOINTING THOSE AMTS FURTHER REMAINS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND THE POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY SHOWN BY THE MODELS. REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING ALEX.  |
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