Re: Model Wars
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/1/2010, 8:12 pm
The Euro is not on that list because it was not located in the NHC's public forecast aid file.

The CMC does show in both places, just not in the top core models section.

I think, but do not know, that the "Average Error (nm)" probably refers to the average error in nautical miles at each forecast interval for the life of the system. "Latest Error (nm)" probably refers to just the latest forecast available, but I am really not sure.

Using OFCL as an example and "Latest Error (nm)"...

model  Error Trend  24hr Error  48hr Error  72hr Error  Day 4 Error  Day 5 Error
OFCL   DECREASING   93.9   134.8   161   142.6   68.4

I would think that means that 5 days ago the NHC had the 5 day forecast position 68.4 nautical miles from what turned out to be the actual current position. For the "Average Error (nm)":

model   Error Trend   24hr Error   48hr Error   72hr Error   Day 4 Error   Day 5 Error
OFCL  DECREASING  54.8  88.4  105.8  101.9  119.8

I would think that means that for the life of the system, the NHC has been off by 119.8 nautical miles in their 5 day forecast position. (One note about OFCL, that is available as a forecast model in the model file even while the storm is an invest a lot of times, so that does not mean just the average error for only all advisory positions. And, I'm not sure but OFCL might even be different at times from the actual advisory forecast if something changes.)

That page is complicated and because I would like to know the info too, I'm working on trying to figure out the logic behind it. I might also have comparisons to the climatology model.
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Model Wars - canetrakker, 7/1/2010, 6:24 pm
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