Re: Might not really be all that funny
Posted by jack ruby on 7/3/2010, 9:05 am
First, I admit that I haven't been much of a model watcher. But I've read-heard that the CMC has been "toned" down quite a bit in recent years. I also saw some stats that Jim posted on a recent tropical update of his, which showed that as far a forecast track on established storms, the CMC ranked highly against most other models. I know this is something different--forecasting cyclogenesis. I'm pretty sure its a more difficult thing for a model to latch onto. But we do know that conditions across the basin are much more favorable than normal for this time of year. We do know that the CMC is no laughing stock (as in the past). And we don't necassarily have to expect everything in that CMC forecast to develop to know that in any case some cyclogenesis is becoming more probable in the next couple of days---and probably in more than one location.
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I can't keep up with CMC - JAC, 7/2/2010, 2:45 pm
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