Central Carib Disturbance
Posted by
Jake on 7/3/2010, 11:54 pm
The disturbance is embedded in a deep layer moist environment. During the evening some slight organization was increased as well as some large clusters of high base convection, which have been more persistent about 100-150 SW of Jamaica. Upper air data indicates that an upper level high is sitting over eastern Honduras, with eastward rsidging. This is producing some shear over the disturbance, but is currently in the most favorable area of the three.
This should become an invest tomorrow, as slow development is line. A strong 850mb vorticity is located near 17N-79W and close by we have the 700-500mb vorts. Once the main source the 850mb co-locates some steady high base convection the surface circulation should spin down to the surface. The upper air pattern should should continue to improve as shear values drop off across the western carib. Think this will take a more northerly track than Alex in this area, as a mid level ridge over the Bahamas should steer this towards the NW or in the general direction of the channel.
Note: This system is not as large as Alex, but large enough and loaded with rich deep layer moisture and a very high OHC in its track. Current steering flow towards the GOM. |
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