Houston/Galveston NWS
Posted by CypressTX on 7/5/2010, 10:19 am
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/ from their discussion this am: ISSUED 520 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010/ DISCUSSION... A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING OVER GLS ISLAND THIS MORNING AND SE WELL OFFSHORE TRAILING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE WEAK LOW IN THE GULF SOUTH OF LA. SOUNDINGS AND MODELS INDICATING A FAIRLY POTENT CAP IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THOUGH PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THAN YESTERDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE TODAY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS (GPW IPWV INDICATES ITS DOWN TO 1.7 TO 1.85") AND CAPPING. SURFACE PRESSURES HOLDING AROUND 1011 MB WITH THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF HOUMA LA. STILL THINKING IT WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SUFFER FROM A LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND BECOME A PLAYER FOR SETX EITHER BY INTERACTING WITH THE NCENT GULF LOW OR ON ITS OWN ON WEDNESDAY BY BRINGING IN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSUMING IT IS JUST A TROPICAL LOW. HURRICANE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS MOVING IT INTO THE VICINITY OF CANCUN THEN ON TO THE W...WNW OR THE NW. MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE US MOISTURE AND RAIN OR PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IF IT DEVELOPS. HAVE TRENDED THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH IT HEADED TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND REGION. HAVE BROUGHT POPS UP A GOOD DEAL BASED ON THIS TRACK AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE (BY THE WAY THE GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD TX AS DOES THE TVCN). PERHAPS MORE SHEAR AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF BUT AM THINKING THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL MAY HAVE IT WRONG WITH TIMING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. HAVE NOT ADDED HEAVY RAIN YET TO THE FORECAST BUT GRIDDED QPF FORECASTS ARE OVER .25-.50" ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH SOME HIGHER BULLS-EYES. PLAN TO HARP ON ELEVATED TIDES NEAR 4` AND RAINFALL IN THE HWO. BROAD BRUSHING THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS FEEDBACK FROM ANYTHING TROPICAL AND THE RIDGING LEADS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN MY FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...THOUGH NOT FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN WED/THU. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION IN TX/UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO MS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 45 MARINE... OVERALL LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE C GULF THAT REMAINS RATHER UNORGANIZED. FORECAST MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST BUT KEEP IT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS THE OTHER CONCERN. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP THIS WAVE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS PUSH IT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TX COAST BY 12Z THU. THE GFS STRUGGLES TO LATCH ONTO THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST WILL RESEMBLE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE RISE BUT WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE UNTIL A SYSTEM ACTUALLY DOES DEVELOP. FOR NOW E-SE WINDS 15-20KTS AND 5-7FT SEAS LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...TIDES WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ON WED/THU LOOK TO BE ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE MLLW WITH A TOTAL TIDE APPROACHING 4 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 75 94 77 92 / 20 20 20 20 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 96 76 93 78 91 / 20 10 30 30 60 GALVESTON (GLS) 89 82 88 81 88 / 20 10 30 30 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...45 AVIATION/MARINE...39 |
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