Dr Strangelove??
Posted by JAC on 7/8/2010, 10:04 am
So, land interaction is a complicated topic.

What I have observed is that parcel theory becomes very important when a TC is near land.

Inversion aka caps become important.

If there is no cap and high LI and or CAPE over land and ahead of a TC, then chances are good that development will continue until landfall.

If the opposite, a cap and/or low LI/CAPE; then convection will be inhibited and possible dry air entrainment could occur into the core.

Why those conditions exist depends on a lot of factors:

1)  Solar land heating and cooling (cloud cover over the land ahead of the TC is important to destablize the air ahead of the TC).

2)  Unstable air advecting into the area ahead of a TC.

3)  Shear, etc.


Below is the Brownsville Skew-T at 12Z this morning.

CAPE is about 1100, LI = -4, and no inversion.

So, if there is little cloud cover during the day today before landfall; I would expect the air to destablize to CAPEs around 3000 and LI to -6 or -7.

That is enough for TD2 to continue developing until landfall.

Need to keep an eye on VIS for cloud cover over land and watch soundings during the day.

Another post earlier showed that there was high moisture advecting into the area; so, dry-air entrainment shouldn't be a problem - juice looks good.










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Chances for a TS before Landfall? - JAC, 7/8/2010, 8:50 am
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