Tornado Threat this Afternoon
Posted by JAC on 7/8/2010, 12:20 pm
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081453Z - 081630Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BRIEF FUNNEL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL VICINITY. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY OCCUR WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. MODESTLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX/RIO GRANDE VICINITY DURING THE DAY. CONSULT NHC FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LATEST FORECASTS. A COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FUNNELS/TORNADOES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS CURRENTLY MODEST PER CRP/HGX/BRO WSR-88D VWP DATA...A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS/POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...COMBINED WITH A FRICTIONALLY-ENHANCED NEAR-SHORE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE...WILL SUPPORT FUNNEL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL AS ADDITIONAL BANDS PIVOT ASHORE. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT THINKING THAT FLOW AROUND 1 KM SHOULD AT LEAST REACH 30-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO MODESTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SRH/LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALSO DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2010 |
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