Another Yellow circle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by
Jake on 7/10/2010, 11:37 am
Well the NHC has placed a yellow circle and 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Really) due to the disturbance being over land. Until now, this has not been an issue for me, but placing a yellow circle on a system thats overland and moving due west is pushing this.
On the other hand, would understand the caution label if this was expected to move over the extreme NW carib. The disturbance is under a conducive upper air environment, we would have a developing cyclone if this was over the open water of the western carib.
Looking ahead, guidance indicates that theTUTT which has been anchored near 25N-60W will lift north and flatten. This should allow any waves with strong cyclonic 850mb rotation to further orrganize mostly south of 18N. As the TUTT will losen its grip south of 18N, but keep an active westerly shear zone across a large area North of 20. In other words, will look for formation several hundred miles from the lessor antilles and into the carib. These will likely be the most conducive areas for steady strengthening.
THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK!!! |
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Another Yellow circle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Jake, 7/10/2010, 11:37 am Post A Reply
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