93W in WPAC could hit Luzon
Posted by JAC on 7/11/2010, 7:43 am




WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 134.2E TO 14.8N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
110156Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FLOWING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 110054Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 20-KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORMING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO
HAVE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//
NNNN











State weather forecasters on Sunday afternoon started tracking a new low-pressure area (LPA) that may bring rains to Luzon and Visayas.

While the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) did not say if the LPA will intensify into a cyclone, other weather sites indicated there is a strong chance it will.

"Luzon and Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening," PAGASA said in its 5 p.m. bulletin.

Weather site Typhoon2000.ph said there is an 85-percent chance the LPA may intensify into a cyclone. It said the LPA was moving west-northwest at 26 kph towards eastern Luzon as of 2 p.m.

On the other hand, the Japan Meteorological Agency already referred to the LPA as a "TD (tropical depression)" as of 5 p.m. Sunday.

Should the LPA intensify into a cyclone, it will be code-named "Basyang," according to PAGASA.

PAGASA earlier said some 13 to 15 cyclones may pass through Philippine territory this year. Only one - "Agaton" (international code name Omais) - passed through the country last March.

As of 2 p.m. Sunday, PAGASA said the LPA was estimated at 960 km east of Legazpi City in Albay province in Bicol.

The LPA was embedded along the intertropical convergence zone affecting Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA addded.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said light to moderate winds blowing from the southeast to south will prevail over Luzon and coming from the east to southeast over the rest of the country.



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93W in WPAC could hit Luzon - JAC, 7/11/2010, 7:43 am
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