Conson taking aim for Luzon
Posted by JAC on 7/12/2010, 7:12 am
     TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE WRAPPING AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CONTINUES TO INDUCE A STRONG POLEWARD TUG. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.5 IN CONSIDERATION OF THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THOUGH TC 03W HAS JOGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BY TAU 72, A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ENABLE THE STORM TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.  1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TS 03W HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 120059Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, CONFIRMING THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH SST (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ALONG THE TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 03W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST PROG REASONING. B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OHC VALUES IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS. NEAR TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER LUZON INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AT TAU 72, WITH GFS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH (>30 KNOTS) EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR ANCHORED OVER CHINA. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK AND AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 120.// NNNN  |
67
In this thread:
- JTWC Forecasts RI in 24 Hrs - JAC, 7/12/2010, 2:01 pm
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.