4 blossoms of convection ...
Posted by
LawKat on 7/19/2010, 6:21 pm
(1) The central Gulf has a peculiar spin to it, and some convection. Not enough time to get its act together. Dry air as well.
(2) the far western caribbean is looking more ominous, with a detectable spin nearly due west of the west Jamaica coastline. Lots of convection with it as well.
(3) 97L, while not that impressive on satellite, is the one with the best spin.
(4) the Central Atlantic wave and blob looks very robust. It has fired red from a central point all day long. Pretty far down in latitude though.
I'm going limb walking here:
(1) No time.
(2) Time, water, some shear, plenty of moisture/instability. I think a TD is at least plausible.
(3) I do think the NHC will be upping its % on this one as days go by.
(4) This one intrigues me most. I really think this will be least affected by dry air and ULLs, and given some north movement, we will be looking at a named storm down the road.
The unforutnate side effect to any of these, is given the strong ridging to the north, and its extent west, all of these are bound for the GOMEX. It's not a good thing when you have to say "when" landfall happens and not "if". |
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4 blossoms of convection ... - LawKat, 7/19/2010, 6:21 pm
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