97L Development in the Bahamas
Posted by JAC on 7/20/2010, 7:28 am
The TUTT is pulling back.

Mid-level vorticity is increasing but nothing on the surface yet.

Most models are moving this into the Bahamas, were it will be on the SW side of the weakening TUTT.

GFS ensembles also have this tightly tracked into the Bahamas.

Shear is heavy to the north.

The shear could in fact fire up some strong MCS's.

Need to watch if a hot-tower forms.  If so, it could reduce shear and we could see strong development.

If no hot-tower, then the system could wash itself out and it may not even get to a TD.

A tight-rope walk at this point - wait and see.


BTW, the GOM TUTT wiped out chances for the West Carib to develop.

















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97L Development in the Bahamas - JAC, 7/20/2010, 7:28 am
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