All the variables ....
Posted by
LawKat on 7/22/2010, 1:10 pm
Well, there aren't that many.
1) The ridge to the north. You can actually see it settling in more pronounced right now, on WV. Will it push TD 3 around and drill it WNW on a beeline? My thinking is yes and no. The ridge will hold and somewhat amplify, with NO troughs AT ALL in the foreseeable future to erode its west edge. How far south is the better question I think? I think the high will set up right along the immediate coast. This should keep TD3(BONNIE) WNW and parallel to the northern Gulf coast for about 72 hrs, putting it nearly 200-250 miles due south of Pensacola/Mobile. I do think that there will be a modest shift to just N of WNW at that point, on the western edge of high. Lousiana unfortunately looks like the landfall, but where could be from Venice to Lake Charles.
2) The ULL. You could watch the Katrina loop all day long and see what almost looks like the same scenario, on a much more modest scale, happening now. You have a ULL that the storm has followed starting to race west. You have an amplified high to the north. That's where the similarities end. There is no substantial high over the storm itself, shear is not going to be near 0 as it was with Katrina. ULL will be a modest inhibiting factor.
3) Timing. IS EVERYTHING as they say. TD3 is about to pass over a hot spot in the water. It will have very little land interaction, until second landfall, if NHC holds true. Even if it jogs north, South Florida is as flat and watery, nearly as the ocean itself is.
Final thought (for the time being): Bonnie is probably here already, and probably with winds between 45-55 mph right now. I think a high end TS is now out of the question for extreme south Florida, from Homestead, through Marathon Key, down Key West. After that, it gets hairy, in that SPILLVILLE is right there, no matter how this pans out. Oil going to get pushed somewhere north at some point, irrespective of landfall. Skimming and cleanup operations were ceased yesterday afternoon and for the time being until the storm's effects pass, which may not be until Wednesday of next week (this includes residual wind and wave action).
Expectation, is central Lousiana to Western Louisiana landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane.
This could ALL change on a dime. |
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All the variables .... - LawKat, 7/22/2010, 1:10 pm Post A Reply
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