I think there's considerable degree of uncertainty in regards to intensification in Gulf
Posted by jack ruby on 7/22/2010, 3:21 pm
Depends a lot on separation between ULL and TD3. Also think Lawkat makes a good point about surface high pressure which will be sitting on top of the storm in the gulf which should aid in the development of deeper low pressure at the surface (Bonnie) in the Gulf. I saw earlier where intensification models had it at about 50 mph max winds in the Gulf. I think thats gonna be revised upward. The western La coast seems a strong bet now (according to practically all models). Last NHC Discussion said this about intensification.
THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.



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I think there's considerable degree of uncertainty in regards to intensification in Gulf - jack ruby, 7/22/2010, 3:21 pm
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