Still 40% at 2AM EDT
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/1/2010, 1:51 am
At 2AM EDT on August 1st:

"A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

And the latest thinking from the NHC is here in their NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/index.php
Once again, experimental.
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40% Orange for the complex area of disturbed weather that includes former 90L - Chris in Tampa, 7/31/2010, 7:41 pm
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