Re: 2 pm EURU RUN shows very weak low
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/1/2010, 5:03 pm
Wide basin view:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

If it was severely impacted it might possibly head a little further west. The steering, which will change of course, at the moment indicates that it might have a little more chance to go west if it was weaker:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

If it was stronger it might be enough to make a little more of a turn:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=
(though that doesn't mean a complete recurve, just not as far west)

Personally, I would think the models are a little north at the moment until I see 91L start to pull out of the ITCZ. It's rather large and until I see it gaining some latitude, I'm not so sure about such a north move above the islands. It will probably take a bit longer to gain strength and therefore I think it might trek a little further west.

I think the storm needs to get just a tad better defined before the models will have a better grasp.
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2 pm EURU RUN shows very weak low - stormlover, 8/1/2010, 2:58 pm
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