Yes for sure, but track forecast very tricky
Posted by
JAC on 8/2/2010, 7:34 am
91L is struggling a bit this morning because:
1) Core is fluctuating - which is very normal
2) SAL is giving it one final punch in the kidneys
3) No well developed poleward-outflow channel which limits IAKE
It will develop though.
A lot of positives because:
1) Great anti-cyclone over head
2) Minimal 200mb vorticity.
3) MIMIC-TPW is rolling indicating a well developed boundary-layer theta-e convergence.
BTW, the big convection blob to the east at 30W will peter out because:
1) No 850mb vorticity
2) 200mb vorticity is building in over it due to the positive tilted trough to the NE
91L track will be extremely complicated to forecast.
Looking at EURO and GFS
1) Getting a few deep shortwaves coming off CONUS that will fluctuate the Mid-Atlantic High
2) The deep Carib Low is forecast to strongly fluctuate as well
3) Lots of unstable air in the midwest, with cold air forecast to come down from Canada, that can fire up yet unknown shortwaves or even develop cutoff lows.
4) 91L could move further due west before it spins up and Coriiolis grabs it for a curve NW.
I would say at this point Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Bahamas, and East Coast from FL to NC needs to pay attention.
Nobody is out of the woods yet.
Water temps in the Bahams and off the east coast are very high.
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Yes or No -
BobbiStorm,
8/2/2010, 6:30 am Post A Reply
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