PREDICT Synopsis
Posted by JAC on 8/2/2010, 12:24 pm
Date (UTC): 2010/08/02 11:32
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/02 11:36
Revised at(UTC): 2010/08/02 13:51
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Pouch Name: PGI24L        Official Name:        Initial Center Point: 13N   11W
Notes:




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ECMWF:  Phase Speed: -7.5        Determination: average        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Relatively weak, but persists out to 120 h.


GFS:      Phase Speed: -6.8        Determination: average        Level tracked: 700 hPa

RH phase speed was disregarded.
Track only out to 72 h.


UKMET:  Phase Speed:        Determination:        Level tracked:



NOGAPS:  Phase Speed: -5.1        Determination: V only        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Tracks to 120 h, but the pouch moves off of Africa then becomes
quasi-stationary ... which doesn't seem consistent with a phase
speed of -5.1 m/s.



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Other potential systems:
PGI20L near 14N, 81W is about to make landfall on Nicaragua.

A weak wave near 67W is denoted by the models, but with no
convection, its chances are slim.

The PGI21L wave has moved north and passed to the west of
PGI22L/91L.  It has a high-amplitude (meridionally) TPW max, but
TPW is confined to the low-level.  The wave has little to no
convection.  In analyses, the models indicate only a trof at
700hPa, which then dissipates, leaving only 91L.

A large convective system ~26W is present between 91L and PGI24L
for the second consecutive day.  Analyses and models don't
indicate anything there, at least in terms of a wave at 700hPa.
86
In this thread:
Wave PGI24L about to exit Africa - JAC, 8/2/2010, 12:01 pm
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