PREDICT Synopsis
Posted by
JAC on 8/2/2010, 12:24 pm
Date (UTC): 2010/08/02 11:32 Author: Boothe Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/02 11:36 Revised at(UTC): 2010/08/02 13:51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pouch Name: PGI24L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 13N 11W Notes:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECMWF: Phase Speed: -7.5 Determination: average Level tracked: 700 hPa
Relatively weak, but persists out to 120 h.
GFS: Phase Speed: -6.8 Determination: average Level tracked: 700 hPa
RH phase speed was disregarded. Track only out to 72 h.
UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -5.1 Determination: V only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Tracks to 120 h, but the pouch moves off of Africa then becomes quasi-stationary ... which doesn't seem consistent with a phase speed of -5.1 m/s.
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Other potential systems: PGI20L near 14N, 81W is about to make landfall on Nicaragua.
A weak wave near 67W is denoted by the models, but with no convection, its chances are slim.
The PGI21L wave has moved north and passed to the west of PGI22L/91L. It has a high-amplitude (meridionally) TPW max, but TPW is confined to the low-level. The wave has little to no convection. In analyses, the models indicate only a trof at 700hPa, which then dissipates, leaving only 91L.
A large convective system ~26W is present between 91L and PGI24L for the second consecutive day. Analyses and models don't indicate anything there, at least in terms of a wave at 700hPa.
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In this thread:
Wave PGI24L about to exit Africa -
JAC,
8/2/2010, 12:01 pm- 12Z CMC on it now - JAC, 8/3/2010, 3:27 pm
- PREDICT Synopsis - Another Interaction Like Colin Formation - JAC, 8/3/2010, 9:07 am
- GFS likes it - JAC, 8/3/2010, 6:43 am
- In the water - JAC, 8/3/2010, 5:52 am
- PREDICT Synopsis - JAC, 8/2/2010, 12:24 pm
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