Re: Colin....how poor was the forecast
Posted by
LawKat on 8/3/2010, 11:41 pm
Favorable environment wasn't the issue. Forward speed was. Colin's shear was self-induced, due to the extreme forward speed, in his early development.
This happened to a couple of tropical storms in that area over the past few seasons.
I don't think they missed the environment forecast, but the forward speed induced shear could not have been predicted.
The one thing that I will say they have missed since Alex is the power of the high. It looks like it may be as strong as in 2007.
A high that can "conveyor belt" a system forward at more than 22 mph, at that latitude, is really cranking with some power. 2008 had Tropical Storm Josephine out race her convection. The NHC called for regeneration that never happened. 2007 had Tropical Storm Melissa which out raced her convection and dissipated.
So this IS NOT the first time such forecast have been missed due to a speedy LLC.
This high is really entrenched and just as far south and west as in 2007. |
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