TC Update and Environment Analysis / Bermuda High
Posted by
Jake on 8/7/2010, 4:17 pm
First Colin: A Bonnie like system that couldv'e been, but never did do to a relentless shear gear which has continued across the SW atantic since the middle of July. Colin will continue on a N-NE track ahead of a large deep layer trough and slowly increase in forward speed while losing tropical status.
Second 93L: This system is slowly becoming better organized as it moves in a general WNW-NW track towards the central atlantic while likely becoming our next TD-TS, while never making it across.
Third Disturbance a few hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands appears to also be organizing as it moves towards the W-WNW at 10-15mph. Cyclonic turning is evident on sat images accompanied by some mod-convection. This system shows potential to become our next TC,but don't think it will make it across 55-60w. Currently, there's two large upper ULL's across the SW and central atlantic. Although, the ULL in the central atantic will retrograde northward and allow what's soon to become 94L will to increase, but our large ULL north of the greater antilles is well anchored and will not move much well into the near future. Shear induced westerly winds will persist across the basin and hinder anything from crossing 60w. In other words, shear will be strongest north of 20N, but deepen into the eastern carib as we get later into the week.
My analysis of the Bermuda high's strength for the rest of the season will affect cyclone tracks as follows:
Through SW Atlantic / Bahamas 50%
Through Caribbean 35%
Recurvetures central atlantic 15%
The Bermuda high has remained on average stronger than normal, although my technic is still being adjusted, I look at several parameters. NAO, POSITION AND AVERAGE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, DURATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, DEEP LAYER TROUGHING INTO THE GULF/SE CONUS AND AVERAGE POSITION OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET 250MB.
The Bermuda high will gradually build back across the western atlantic as we get into the middle of August. Once we get passed the 16-20th of August, we will have several systems coming across the basin under a less hostile pattern and a well established sub-tropical ridge.
The east coast mostly south of the carolinas and florida will be the most threatened with possible back to back canes. The gulf will be affected from systems acrossing florida and from the carib, but most will head into the Yucatan and BOC. |
186
In this thread:
TC Update and Environment Analysis / Bermuda High - Jake, 8/7/2010, 4:17 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.