Is 94L Working its Way into the GOM Today?
Posted by JAC on 8/9/2010, 7:51 am



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010



A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.





Surface winds are starting to turn in the east GOM with Stratiform precip off the SW coast of Florida thru the Keys.

200mb vorticity over the Bahamas looks to be loosing some of its strength.

700mb vorticity has popped up and looks well defined.

I expect heavy MCS convection to fire over Florida in the afternoon.

Need to see how that shakes out for possible development in the east GOM as the 700mb vorticity moves west.

IMHO spinup, if it occurs, could be a little more farther south, perhaps closer to the Keys.







http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/winds/flash24hr.php?&sat=wgE&prod=vor200














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Is 94L Working its Way into the GOM Today? - JAC, 8/9/2010, 7:51 am
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