Thoughts from NWS Mobile
Posted by
LawKat on 8/10/2010, 8:10 am
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS
AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...MOSTLY NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS...BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A BROAD
UPPER LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE
ECMWF AND SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
THUS GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER HOT DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST EMERGES
BETTER IN THE EASTERN GULF. AS FOR TEMPS...DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSION
AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE 00Z MAV
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED...AND A TAD ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY...RANGING FROM 104 TO 107 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST PLACES
GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SE MS AND EXTREME INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST AL. 32/EE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY)...AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD EARLY
WED...SFC LOW MOVES (TROPICAL/SUB-TROPICAL) FROM E CNTRL GLFMEX
TO N CNTRL GLFMEX BY MIDDAY...AND THEN INTO SE LA OR SE MS COAST
LATE WED EVE/EARLY THU AM. WENT WITH SREF MEAN AND 10.00 ECMWF ON
PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...WHICH WERE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A SFC LOW PRES TO
VISIT OUR AREA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME... THERE HAS BEEN
A TENDENCY FOR THE TROPICAL MODELS TO MOVE THE "WOULD BE" SYSTEM MORE
TO THE RIGHT (OR EAST) WITH TIME. SYSTEM TURNS TO N AS IT FINDS
WEAKNESS IN MID TROP RIDGE...PLACING ENTIRE CWA ON E (OR WET) SIDE OF
SYSTEM BY LATE WED. SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSED AT 850 HPA OVER SE LA THROUGH
MIDDAY THU AND THEN FILLS WHILE OPENING THU NIGHT. SW ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING IN THROUGH 12Z FRI ENHANCES THE WEAKENINGFILLING. THERE IS
A TIME PERIOD WHERE THIS SYSTEM MAY STALL AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN
ON A VERY SMALL SCALE LATE THU AND INTO FRI. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY VIA AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING TOOLS ONCE WE HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH IN REGARD TO WHAT
ACTUALLY FORMS. OTRW...WILL DAMPEN MAX TEMPS A BIT ON THU GIVEN
EXPECTED WDSPRD PCPN OVER SRN 2/3 AREA. FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BINOVC AROUND...BUT LINGERING HEAVY RAINS COULD BE AT LEAST OVER WRN
HALF OF AREA. UTILIZED THE SREF QPF FOR STARTING POINT FOR GRIDDED
QPF FIELDS. ALSO USED SREF WIND DIRECTIONS WITH TWEAKS TO THE MAGN IN
SHORT AND MID-RANGES.
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