Re: Depression or not?
Posted by
bbear on 8/10/2010, 6:09 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE
105 TO 108 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AS IT SLOWLY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS...
BUT THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PATH TAKING THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL INTENSITY...WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL NEEDS
TO MOVE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WARM GULF WATERS...IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL ONLY HAVE ABOUT 48 HOURS
TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT ITS
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND IN FACT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST IT TO
STRENGTHEN BEYOND A MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES A
TROPICAL STORM...THE LOCAL AREA WILL FEEL AT LEAST SOME EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN...STRONGER WINDS AND
ELEVATED TIDES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
TIDES 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...ALL OF THESE NUMBERS WILL INCREASE AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND...IT IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP IN
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS
THAT OCCURS...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA AGAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE CLOUD SHIELD
FROM THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SKIES RETURN TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
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Depression or not? -
LawKat,
8/10/2010, 4:02 pm Post A Reply
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