Discussion
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/10/2010, 8:07 pm
Even the discussion mentions the GFDL as having a high bias at times.
----------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE
CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION
SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN
KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...
315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE
TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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