GFS: Ex-TD5 a Pesky Pain in the Butt for the Next Week
Posted by JAC on 8/12/2010, 7:25 am
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010081206&field=950mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
258 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
CIRCULATION FROM WHAT ONCE WAS TD 5 CROSSING CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS INTO ST. BERNARD AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES THIS
MORNING...AND ARE VERY OBSERVABLE ON KLIX AND KMOB RADARS. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE...OVERNIGHT TENDS TO SEE PRECIPITATION INCREASE
NEAR THE CENTER AND RADAR HAS BEEN FILLING IN STEADILY OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVER LAND AT THIS
TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2.6 INCHES ON THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING SUPPORT EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE CORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TD #5 MOVED EAST TO WEST INLAND OVER ST.
BERNARD PARISH AND PLAQUEMINES PARISH.  LIX 88D OBSERVED THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER FORMED...WITH SPIRAL RAINBANDS AROUND
THE EAST AND WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER...JUST BEFORE IT MOVED
ONSHORE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 4 AM.  THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO A POSITION SOUTH OF
LAFAYETTE TODAY.  LOCAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING THEN MOVE THIS
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY.  GIVEN THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH WILL DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INLAND FROM
THE GULF...AND THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...THE CWA CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE CWA INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF TD #5 OVER
THE CWA HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS.  THE DAY CREW MAY HAVE TO
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF CONDITIONS DO NOT DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  BENNETT
&&

.LONG TERM...
HAVE OPTED TO MAKE FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GFS SOLUTION BEYOND 12Z MONDAY DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR MOBILE BAY APPEARS
TO BE WELL OVERDONE...AS GFS WIND GRIDS WOULD DEPICT A TROPICAL
STORM DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE. ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST MAKES A BIT MORE
SENSE.

353
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GFS: Ex-TD5 a Pesky Pain in the Butt for the Next Week - JAC, 8/12/2010, 7:25 am
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