HPC Discussion
Posted by JAC on 8/13/2010, 8:31 am
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
642 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010



ON THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ATLANTIC...MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT 250/500 HPA
LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AZORES...PAVING THE WAY FOR A BROAD/DEEP
TUTT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS LIKELY TO EBB...THUS MAKING IT MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CYCLONE FORMATION. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO THIS
SCENARIO...AS THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW RISK OF CYCLONES
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING...THE RISK OF FORMATION
IS WHAT COUNTS.

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 11/0000 UTC.  ISSUED

ESCALON... (HONDURAS)
NARANJO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)

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A Couple Bad Boys over Africa - JAC, 8/11/2010, 6:19 am
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