NOLA NWS Expecting Higher Chance for Development
Posted by JAC on 8/15/2010, 8:56 am
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...REMAINS
SITUATED NEAR MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. THIS IS A BIT NORTH OF WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A VERY MOIST/
MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOUISIANA TO
ALABAMA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER/PWATS/ AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...MINUS A LARGE WATER BODY AT THE
SURFACE OF COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MODELS REMAIN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER ALABAMA MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE VERTICALLY
STACKED FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH AN UPPER HIGH
CENTER JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE LARGER SCALE
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING SUCH THAT THE COL OR
WEAKNESS WILL TAKE THE LOW WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION OF
COURSE...IS WILL THIS LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS INDICATING A
LOW/20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 100 AM CDT THIS MORNING. I AM EXPECTING TO SEE
THIS CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT GET HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...THE CLUSTER OF TRACKS OVER WATER
GIVE THE LOW PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTH GULF
OF MEXICO TO ATTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST MODEL SHOWING TROPICAL STORM/GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND 50
KNOTS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING FAIRLY WEAK SOLUTIONS...IS NOW SHOWING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THAT COULD EASILY SUPPORT
35 KNOTS OF WIND. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE RAISED THE
WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED AGAIN
LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST...AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THIS IS
VERY TROUBLESOME GIVEN MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
LAST WEEK OR SO OF RAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS.
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EX TD5 Back into the GOM Monday? - JAC, 8/15/2010, 8:42 am
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