NHC Update a Vortex Message
Posted by
JAC on 8/16/2010, 4:12 pm
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 19:58Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301) Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 19:28:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°07'N 87°02'W (29.1167N 87.0333W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 92 miles (148 km) to the S (173°) from Pensacola, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 23kts (From the SE at ~ 26.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 301m (988ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:05:50Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center
|
83
In this thread:
Top-Down Redevelopment of Ex-TD 5 -
JAC,
8/16/2010, 12:43 pm- NHC Update a Vortex Message - JAC, 8/16/2010, 4:12 pm
- Dry boundary-layer air to the SE - JAC, 8/16/2010, 1:55 pm
- Fresh ASCAT Data - JAC, 8/16/2010, 1:42 pm
- RECON in the Air - JAC, 8/16/2010, 1:36 pm
- VIS showing a couple outflow boundaries - JAC, 8/16/2010, 1:10 pm
- Re: Top-Down Redevelopment of Ex-TD 5 - CypressTX, 8/16/2010, 12:59 pm
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.