The Forecasted Re-Curve Setup
Posted by JAC on 8/20/2010, 7:24 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
415 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 24 2010 - 12Z FRI AUG 27 2010


PRELIMINARY FRONTS/SEA LEVELS PRESSURES WERE COMPOSED USING
PRIMARILY A BLEND OF THE 12Z-00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  A
SMALL WEIGHT OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z GFS WAS INCLUDED FOR
DAYS 6/7.


THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD...SHOWING A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS IN CANADA.  THE FIRST LOW
DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 3/MON 23
AUG TO THE LAKES DAY 4/ TUE 24 AUG AND NORTHEAST DAY 5 UNTIL
MERGING WITH THE LOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS AND CONTINUING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DAY 6.  PHASING ISSUES EXIST AS THE
CANADIAN/GFS/UKMET ALL SHOW A SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
12Z-00Z ECMWF.  

THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ROUGHLY AROUND THU.  THE 00Z ECMWF
SLOWED DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS CLOSER TO THE RESPECTIVE
ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS AROUND 12 THU 26 AUG.  THE 00Z
GFS/CANADIAN LAG SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER THROUGH 12Z FRI.  WITH THE
UPSTREAM FLOW DEAMPLIFYING...MANUAL PROGS STAYED THE COURSE WITH
THE FASTER 12-00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR NOW.  












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31L & 33L Expected to Merge - JAC, 8/19/2010, 10:24 pm
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