Re: always the best
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/22/2010, 4:43 pm
On the new model system, in alpha testing, look for "NHC model error" for active storms on the main page:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/
Going with average might be best.

For TD6 / Likely soon to be Danielle:

Table View:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2010&storm=06&display=modelerror&type=table&run=latest&errortype=average&interval=6&showbearing=&positionunit=nm&intensityunit=kts&showcases=&trend=&showtrendtext=&heatmap=1&showzerohour=1&hour=120

Chart View:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2010&storm=06&display=modelerror&type=chart&run=latest&errortype=average

Look for green colors to see what model is doing better in comparison to the average of all other models for a particular hour. That works for position error. For intensity error, keep in mind that the GFS ensemble members don't end up forecasting the peak intensity of the storm.

Beyond this simple description, it gets more complex.

I don't currently have a way to see what model is best for the season. I'm not sure if I will do that yet. Every storm is different and no model is always perfect, so I'm not really sure if I want to show what model is doing best for the entire season because it might send the wrong idea to some people. Even for a storm, I don't actually note which is best, you can just tell by the colors or on the chart see which one is lowest, meaning it has the least amount of error.

Just keep in mind that it is still an experimental product. It seems to be going well so far. (Just stay away from the trend options at the top of the table page, since I just built that in the last few days and it is not well tested)
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Tropical Update Aug 22 Thanks Jim - DESteve, 8/22/2010, 12:21 pm
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