Re: Danielle evening take from Jake
Posted by
Jake on 8/22/2010, 9:40 pm
The cyclone has increased somewhat this afternoon since the center has gotten under the convection burst. This is no surprise as the vorticity is well stacked and dynamics have combined with the diurnal pulse.
Danille will have some issues during the next few days, due to E-NE shear. A strong upper high is centered NE of the cyclone, the southern periphery of the high will continue to shear the storm during the next day or two. Thereafter, SST's steadily increase and shear values will decrease.
Conclusion: A strong sub-tropical ridge will force the cyclone towards the WNW. Around day 3-4 strong central oceanic trough will deepen and cause a break in the ridge, this will allow a more poleward motion. Thereafter, another deep layer high will build off the eastern seaboard, while ther trough pulls N-NE. This will weaken the steering currents and force a more westward turn. Its still possible that the trough will not be deep enough to pull Danielle out to sea, but just as a threat to the US is unknown, a recurvature is also not guaranteed. |
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