| Some asked about local Mets, well the only local ones I listen to work for the NWS. Here's excerpts from the short and long range forecast discussions starting here in Charleston and working our way up the East coast. Why is this important? Because just as we should watch 'trends" in models we should watch "trends" in individual forecasts. These forecasts are the human version of any Ensemble model forecast. Each has an opinion. I've been watching these discussions to try and figure out the players for Danielle. What do you think? KCHS Charleston "THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER BUT SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE NW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST...MORE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 92-94 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER BY FRIDAY DUE TO FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND LATE DAY COLD ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ATOP SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE." From KILM, Wilmington NC "HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ON WED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN WAKE OF MID TO UPPER TROUGH BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURS AS TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WED AND ABOVE ON THU IN WARMER SW FLOW. DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT ON THURS NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FINAL TRAILING VORT SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN TROUGH AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL SERVE AS A MECHANISM OF LIFT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL AND SUB-CLOUD AIR. NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES SEEM MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL, IF ANY. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION THE THEME FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND BELOW CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED, MAINLY AT NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWING NEAR CLIMO BY DAY DUE TO STRONG INSOLATION AND DEEP MIXING." From KMHX Moorehead City NC AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...DO ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY SUBSIDING AS THE SRF LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NE TO NW TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MIGRATES TO THE NE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM TUE...VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LEESIDE TROF SETTING UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO WENT WITH ONLY 20-30 PERCENT POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 PM TUE...A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IN STORE. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK." KAKQ Wakefield Virginia "LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITING WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS SE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NERN US WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT OFF THE SE COAST REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. THE 00Z MODELS SHOWED SOME DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD AS THE 00Z GFS TRIED TO KNOCK THE SERN US RIDGE DOWN AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE ECMWF LEFT THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND STALLED THE SFC FRONT ACROSS VA. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT SEE ENOUGH PUSH TO DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH SO HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. OVERALL...HAVE LEFT THE DRY WEATHER FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CONTINUED SUMMER TIME HEAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN ON MONDAY PUSHING INTO THE 90S. BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT TO THE WEST TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE SO BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH READINGS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FOR WED INTO THURSDAY...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY AS IT SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL ANY COOLER." KPHI Mount Holly NJ "WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON EXTENT OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER NJ. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING. THURSDAY...THE CFP LOOKS TO BE DRY AND OVERALL A VERY NICE DAY ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY...DRY AND BEAUTIFUL. THE SYNOPSIS HAS THE GENERAL SURFACE FEATURES. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS THE DURATION AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERY DRIZZLY RAINS. MY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FROM LOOKING AT THE RADAR AT 355PM IS THAT SHOWERY DRIZZLY RAINS MAY LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER NEW JERSEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE REMAINS GOOD CONTINUITY AND INTER-MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM /AS OFTEN IS THE CASE IN A DRY PATTERN/, SO THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND THEN REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD." KOKX NY. NY. "SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SEVERAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO THE LOW. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST. NAM IS A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER AS COMPARED WITH THE GFS. SREF SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BUT TRENDS A BIT TOWARDS THE GFS. THIS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE. CLOSED H5 LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN UP WED MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS OPEN TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA...AND MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH WED AS THE TROUGH SLIDERS THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIP GRADUALLY ENDS WED NIGHT. DECAYING COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THU. SINCE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...DO NOT THINK THERE IS THE NEED FOR MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THAT MIGHT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR FRI WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS ON WED WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH PRECIP ENDING AND CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...HIGHS ON THU WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI...HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80." KBOX Boston ".SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WED... OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AS MID LEVEL LOW ADVANCES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL/WARM CONVEYOR BELT JUST OFFSHORE WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES SHOWING SIGNS OF CURLING BACK INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS MID LEVEL LOW TRIES TO WRAP WARM CONVEYOR BELT CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO EASTERN MA. MODELS AGREE ON THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT AND INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. 12Z NAM AND ECMWF OFFER THE MOST QPF BACKING INTO EASTERN MA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WED/WED EVENING. THINK THIS HEAVIER QPF SOLUTIONS ARE THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RRQ OVER EASTERN MA COMBINED WITH WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME TRAVERSING THIS REGION. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BRUSHING THE EASTERN MA MAY YIELD PRECIP TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY WITH SQUALLS POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE AS MID LEVEL OPENS UP LATER WED MID LEVEL TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT. HEAVIER RAIN SHIELD MAY PIVOT AS FAR WEST AS RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. LIGHTER RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY. SURF ZONE FORECAST...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO WED AS DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MA OCEAN BEACHES. WED NIGHT... TROF BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...SO ANY EVENING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUNNIER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING AND USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SNE...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A HEAT WAVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE BUMPED UP MOS MAXES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWER 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT COULD KEEP TUESDAY COOLER THAN FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE WITH GENERAL NWLY/NLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SO EVEN IF IT GETS AS HOT AS FORECAST...HEAT INDICES MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AS FAR AS WX GOES...RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY...WITH NEARLY NO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION." KGYX Portland Maine ".SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE DYNAMICS OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF CYCLONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ENERGY WILL DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW SITTING OFFSHORE AND KICK IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH AN AMPLE MOISTURE STREAM TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW (EVIDENT ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ABLE TO WRAP AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY OF FUNDY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHTER BUT MAY YET LINGER INTO MID AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS NE BRINGING SFC LOW NE THRU THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NGT AS PRCP COMES TO AN END. A CD FNT MOVES THRU LATE THURSDAY WITH A CHC OF SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FRIDAY BUT WITH CD POOL ALOFT COULD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS ISOLD -SHRA WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE N AND MT ZONES. H5 HEIGHTS RISE...WITH 590M HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPR LVL RIDGE. THIS BRINGS A SFC HIGH E INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER WX. H8 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR PLUS 15 C BY LATE SATURDAY THEN ABOVE PLUS 15 C TO NEAR PLUS 20 FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR SOME VERY WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WX. GENERALLY USED GFS40/NAM/PREVIOUS FCST...HPC QPF AND MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE FCST." |