Re: Intensity Forecasting.... is it a crap shoot or are they on the money? Cat 4 Earl?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2010, 6:05 pm
Given the bullishness at times for those models, it is good they stayed at 115mph for the 120 hour forecast for Earl. Earl has some dry air that keeps delaying him at this point (the 48 hr forecast has been 65 knots for a bit now) and while five days is a long time and a lot can happen, when forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm that is still organizing and has some dry air left to work out, I like their forecast. The system is getting better organized, despite the lack of deeper convection, but until It has the organization and some deeper convection, I don't think they should be so bullish as the GFDL and HWRF right away. In a day they can start bumping it up some if Earl starts strengthening. There is no risk to land through that point, so they can go with a lower forecast intensity than those two at first. They at least indicate that things look good for him at that point to give people a heads up.
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Intensity Forecasting.... is it a crap shoot or are they on the money? Cat 4 Earl? - BobbiStorm, 8/26/2010, 5:49 pm
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