Earl and Fiona
Posted by Old Style on 8/27/2010, 3:44 pm
I'm a little more concerned today than I was yesterday, regarding both Earl and Fiona.  First to Earl. On Wed Sept 1, both the Euro and GFS have a strong ridge over the central Atlantic with a weaker second center on the East Coast. In between there is a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic that they recurve Earl through. My point is, that's not much of a weakness. And some models, like the GHM (The GFDL Multiply-Nested Moveable Mesh Hurricane Model) seems to have strengthened the ridge north of Earl as it's approaching the East Coast. Here is this morning's 12Z run of the GHS forecast at 500mb for 6Z Sept 1...

And here is the 500mb Euro from this morning's 12Z run for 12Z on Sept 1...

Now on to Fiona. As you can see from the first image, the GFS is still not doing too much with Fiona. However the Euro has been hinting at trouble. It has a building ridge across the eastern US into the western Atlantic. Obviously, this would not be a good scenario, as it would drive Fiona west into the East Coast. Long way off, but Danielle is looking like the "easiest" of these three storms.  Here's the Euro's forecast at 500mb for 12Z Sept 6th, i.e.  Labor Day morning.

358
In this thread:
Earl and Fiona - Old Style, 8/27/2010, 3:44 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.