Earl Track???
Posted by
Jake on 8/28/2010, 1:35 am
Earl has become alittle better organized this evening with an increase in banding features on the westside and a convective burst near the center. The cyclone is currently encountering some N-NE Shear from the outflow of Danielle, as and some dry air entrainment has pushed the t-storms mainly towards the SW and hindered organization, as the NE cloud structure is ragged and out flow is fair elsewhere.
The future track is indicates a turn towards the NW before nearing the northern antilles. However, the storm is moving due west @ 20mph and Danielle is expected to increase its forward speed late today or tomorrow. I don't confident that Earl will turn NW per guidance, before the core reaches the northern islands. As any deviation south or a longer westward track places those island at risk of hurricane conditions.
As for Fiona, will wait for this to form and have a true tracking center. And she's close to becoming our next cyclone heading in a genera; westward direction in the coming days.
Note: The current troughing has the eastcoast protected, but this will likely change towards more ridging in September with a continued active pattern the chance of a US hit will increase. |
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Earl Track??? - Jake, 8/28/2010, 1:35 am
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