| 5 Day Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204213.shtml?5day?large#contents -------------------- TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 ...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA SOON AND GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND SIZE OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA -------------------- TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.5N 54.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 57.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 59.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.3N 61.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 63.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.0N 67.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 70.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 72.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |