Earl likely becoming a Hurrricane tonight....
Posted by
Jake on 8/28/2010, 10:05 pm
The cyclone is becoming much better organized and intense convection -80c. The environment is becoming increasingly more favorable for possible RI tonight. The northerly shear from Danielle's outflow is diminishing as the cyclone pulls further away from Earl and a anticyclone becomes the main upper feature.
Although the environment is not the same as when Katrina in 2005 emerged into the SE GOM, he has nearly the same sat presentation this evening with a ball of convection on the eastside and an expanding convection on the westside or a split like structure and increasing outflow to the south / west. Hopefully, I am wrong and the Northern islands will not have a RI Earl on approach.
Earl is well embedded within a W -WNW steering flow south of a mid-level ridge, the break in the ridge has been gradually been pushed further and further west by most of the model guidance. In fact, the 18Z GFDL bring the core of Earl very close to PR by Tuesday morning. |
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Earl likely becoming a Hurrricane tonight.... - Jake, 8/28/2010, 10:05 pm Post A Reply
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