| HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 ...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN ------------------------------------------------- HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |